A new study, "Predicting Poverty in the Commonwealth,” released by The Commonwealth Institute and Voices for Virginia’s Children forecasts that children will be hardest hit by the current economic recession and rising unemployment rates.
As unemployment worsens in the state, there will be a significant increase in the number of children living in poverty. Unemployment could push an additional 122,000 to 218,000 Virginians into poverty this year, with children accounting for between 44,000 and 73,000 of this increase.
This would represent up to a 30 percent increase in the child poverty rate in the state. The poverty threshold for a family of four in Virginia is a yearly income of just over $21,000.
Though the effects of the current economic downturn and rising poverty will be felt more deeply in regions already troubled by chronically high unemployment and poverty, additional families pushed into poverty will further strain local economies in our current safety net system across the state.
Northern Virginia hasn’t experienced the high unemployment rates that other regions have. January 2009 unemployment in the region is a relatively low 3.9 percent.
However, of the 250,000 children already living in poverty statewide, nearly 28,000 (or 13 percent) of them live in Northern Virginia. As unemployment rates rise, another 6,000 to 9,000 children in the region will join their ranks. (Northern Virginia is composed of Alexandria City and Arlington, Fairfax, Loudoun and Prince William Counties).
Living in poverty exposes children to multiple risks to healthy adjustment.
Evidence indicates that children pushed into poverty by a recession are likely to remain poor for at least several years after the recovery starts. The cumulative impact across time often has harmful impacts on child development, reducing the prospect the child will reach full potential and causing higher rates of many social, behavioral, educational and occupational problems.
Studies have shown that the long-term impacts of child poverty show up most strikingly in three areas: lower educational attainment, occupational status and earnings; poorer health status; and, higher rates of criminal behavior.
In addition to the human toll exacted by childhood poverty, the economic toll is substantial: diminished human capital and higher rates of costly social problems limit economic growth and future prosperity.
The report notes that increases in food stamp caseloads, food bank demands, Temporary Assistance for Needy Families and Medicaid enrollment are early indicators of economic vulnerability.
During 2008, the first year of the recession, food stamp caseloads in Virginia increased sharply. In Northern Virginia, caseloads rose by 12 percent over the previous year.
This is important to note because food stamps are a reliable early indicator of increasing economic distress and poverty. The impact on Virginia’s children is substantial, as 57 percent of Virginia households receiving food stamps include children.
During the same period, TANF caseloads in Virginia increased by 8 percent. The increase in Northern Virginia was 5 percent.
Based on this early rise in caseloads, and on the percentage increase in TANF cases during the relatively mild 2001 recession (10 percent), we can expect TANF cases in this recession to increase by more than 10 percent, and for that increase to persist for several years beyond the start of the recovery.
Enrollment in Medicaid and Virginia’s children’s health program, Family Access to Medical Insurance Security (FAMIS), has increased by 4.8 percent from December 2007 to December 2008.
Kathy May is director of Voices for Virginia’s Children Nothern Virginia office. Voices for Virginia’s Children is a Grantee Partner of The Women’s Foundation.
